{"id":12372,"date":"2021-12-10T04:04:32","date_gmt":"2021-12-10T04:04:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/?p=12372"},"modified":"2021-12-10T04:04:32","modified_gmt":"2021-12-10T04:04:32","slug":"jets-have-a-perfect-replacement-for-toby-enstrom-in-sami-niku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/?p=12372","title":{"rendered":"Jets have a perfect replacement for Toby Enstrom in Sami Niku"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<nav >\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><button  type=\"button\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" data-target=\"#navbar-collapse-1\" aria-expanded=\"false\">TOGGLE NAVIGATION<\/span><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/nav>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Jets have a perfect replacement for Toby Enstrom in Sami Niku<\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>By Murat Ates\u00a0Mar 12, 2018<\/span>\u00a040\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>The Winnipeg Jets needed to find a replacement for Toby Enstrom \u2013 and fast.<\/p>\n<p>With Winnipeg scheduled to play the next day in Philadelphia, Enstrom skipped last Friday\u2019s optional practice to nurse the lower body injury that has been nagging him for weeks. When it became clear that he could miss Saturday\u2019s game, Winnipeg found itself in a predicament.<\/p>\n<p>Jacob Trouba has been out of the lineup for weeks. Dmitry Kulikov was injured midway through Winnipeg\u2019s previous game. Joe Morrow and Ben Chiarot were already in the lineup. This meant that the closest available defencemen who had all of their limbs in order were with the Jets&#8217; AHL team in Chicago.<\/p>\n<p>As expected, Enstrom\u2019s short term replacement was Tucker Poolman, whose best run of play in the NHL actually corresponds with a previous Enstrom injury. For 10 games earlier this season, Poolman and Chiarot were an effective but sheltered third pairing after Dustin Byfuglien joined Enstrom on the injured reserve.<\/p>\n<p>On Saturday, however, shelter was nowhere to be found. For the first time this season, Winnipeg was forced to dress all three of Poolman, Chiarot, and Morrow in the same game.<\/p>\n<p>It didn\u2019t end well.<\/p>\n<p>While Chiarot acquitted himself well with Byfuglien on the Jets\u2019 makeshift top pair, Morrow and Poolman were hemmed in their own zone for long stretches of play. Chiarot led Winnipeg\u2019s defensemen with a 53.9 per cent Corsi while Morrow and Poolman rounded out the bottom end at just 33.3 per cent each.<\/p>\n<p>Poolman has played well in previous stints with Winnipeg \u2013 as difficult as Saturday\u2019s game was for him, he remains Enstrom\u2019s obvious short term replacement.<\/p>\n<p>But Enstrom is an unrestricted free agent this summer. Winnipeg needs to be prepared to replace him not just in the short term but in the long term, too.<\/p>\n<p>In my opinion, the best player to fill that role was left behind in Chicago\u00a0\u2013 and he\u00a0responded with a hell of a game.<\/p>\n<p>With the Moose on the power play in the dying minutes of a tie game, Sami Niku set up Nic Petan for a one-timer that soon became Manitoba\u2019s game-winning goal. It was Niku\u2019s 31<sup>st<\/sup>\u00a0assist of the season and his 43<sup>rd<\/sup>\u00a0point.<\/p>\n<p>Niku added another assist \u2013 his sixth point in his last five games \u2013 in Manitoba\u2019s Sunday night loss to the Iowa Wild. With his 44<sup>th<\/sup>point, Niku is tied for the most points in the AHL by a defenceman \u2013 as a rookie.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s been a simply phenomenal North American debut for Niku, one that has me convinced that Niku is Enstrom\u2019s spiritual successor. In Niku I see a brilliant, undersized defenseman with high-end offensive skills who can defend well enough to play inside the top four.<\/p>\n<p>But I don\u2019t want you to take my word for it.<\/p>\n<p>For this piece, I reached out to\u00a0Corey Pronman\u00a0and\u00a0Scott Wheeler,\u00a0<em>The Athletic\u2019s<\/em>in-house prospect experts, as well as\u00a0Miika Arponen, founder of\u00a0Finn Prospects\u00a0and writer for the Finnish website,\u00a0Kieeko Areena. I combined their words with numerical projections from previous articles by\u00a0<em>The Athletic&#8217;s\u00a0<\/em>Tyler Dellow\u00a0and\u00a0Namita Nandakumar\u00a0in search of Niku\u2019s ultimate NHL ceiling.<\/p>\n<p>\nWhen the Jets drafted Niku with the 198<sup>th<\/sup>selection in the 2015 draft, the pick didn\u2019t generate a lot of fanfare. Today, Wheeler says Winnipeg killed it with that pick.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNo matter what happens, that Niku, a seventh round pick, has become the player that he is today by age 21 already makes himself a steal,\u201d Wheeler said. \u201cHe has been helped by playing on a very good Moose team, but I think he\u2019ll be a top-four defenceman in the NHL in his own right. He\u2019s the kind of player who could step into the NHL and make a good team like the Jets even better next season.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In researching this piece, I tried and failed to find out what the local papers had to say about him on draft day. That\u2019s in no way a slam \u2013 when a player is taken that deep and comes from Mestis, Finland&#8217;s second division league, it\u2019s hardly fair to expect a 1,000 word column.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly enough, Niku seemed to know more about Winnipeg than we did about him.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a great experience to be drafted to Winnipeg,\u201d Niku said at the draft,\u00a0via a translator. \u201cIt\u2019s a big hockey town. They have amazing fans.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Niku went on to say that he liked Teemu Selanne but was not his biggest fan \u2013 if this shocks you, remember that they&#8217;re so far apart in years that Selanne was a Mighty Duck on the day Niku was born \u2013 before describing his own playing style.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c(I like) to play with the puck, (I like) to move the puck, and (I am) a great skater,\u201d Niku said, again through his translator.<\/p>\n<p>At the time, Niku had just finished his second season for JYP-Akatemia in Mestis, one step below Finland&#8217;s SM-liiga. With three goals and 22 assists in 32 games for JYP-Akatemia, Niku set the Mestis league record for most points by an under-20 defenceman.<\/p>\n<p>I asked Arponen if he could put Niku\u2019s season into context.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is the most any defenceman at his age has scored,\u201d Arponen said. \u201cOf course it is special, but to be honest there haven\u2019t been very many prospects of that calibre playing in Mestis until recent years for some reason.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Mestis was formed for the 2000-2001 season to replace Finland\u2019s first division. Since the 2008-2009 season, top teams in Mestis have been eligible for promotion to the SM-liiga, which produces most of Finland\u2019s top players like Patrik Laine and Joel Armia.<\/p>\n<p>If Niku wasn\u2019t as famous as other top Finnish prospects, Arponen says it\u2019s because he played in Finland\u2019s second best league \u2013 away from the public eye.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNiku was well known among hockey people (in Finland) but not with the public, for example, like Sami Vatanen was. Fame among the public and mainstream media requires quite a big role (for the) junior national team, which Niku didn&#8217;t have.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Niku did play for Finland\u2019s world junior team in 2015 and again in 2016, when he won a gold medal alongside much more heralded Finnish prospects. With Patrik Laine, Jesse Puljujarvi, Sebastian Aho, and Olli Juolevi carrying the team, Niku didn\u2019t get a lot of press.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps more importantly, Niku graduated from Mestis to the SM-liiga that same season. It wasn\u2019t always a smooth transition for the 19 year old.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn his first year in Liiga, he did struggle with bigger opponents,\u201d Arponen said. \u201cHis skating skills were there and his offensive potential was obvious, which is why he had an average TOI of 10:14 and played in a very sheltered role in his first season. His second season was pretty much the same story with more minutes (15:14) but still a sheltered role.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Niku registered 11 points in 38 games as a SM-liiga rookie, giving him the SM-liiga\u2019s top points-per-game for players his age. In his second season, Niku took a major step forward, scoring 27 points in 59 games in 2016-2017. Once again, this was tops among defenders Niku\u2019s age.<\/p>\n<p>What were Niku\u2019s biggest challenges?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLast year, his biggest weakness was the physical side of the game. He got outmuscled by bigger opponents quite often,\u201d Arponen said. \u201cHe also sometimes tried to force a bit too complicated plays with the puck, but that improved when he got used to the Liiga level.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As the AHL\u2019s scoring leader from the blueline, Niku has clearly taken yet one more step forward in his 21-year-old season. In December,\u00a0Wheeler rated Niku as Winnipeg\u2019s fifth best prospect\u00a0(and with the trade of Erik Foley, Niku has presumably jumped to fourth.)<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNiku is a mobile, up-tempo creator who thrives best as a passer, rather than as a shot presence from the point,\u201d Wheeler said in that piece. \u201cWhat sets Niku apart from some of the other young defencemen in the AHL is that he&#8217;s also an excellent man-on-man defender. He&#8217;ll be an NHLer soon enough.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\nHow soon is soon enough? And how good of an NHL player are we talking about?<\/p>\n<p>For that, let\u2019s invoke some research. For this portion of the piece, I\u2019m going to quote Tyler Dellow\u2019s \u201cWhen Do Defenseman Make It?\u201d and Namita Nandakumar\u2019s \u201cIs Sam Morin taking too long? An analysis of NHL prospect timelines.\u201d For the record, both of these are phenomenal articles and if you haven\u2019t read them, they are well worth your time.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s start with a discussion of how soon Niku should make the NHL. Dellow\u2019s piece gives us this graph:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>On this graph, Dellow has this to say:\u00a0<em>\u201cJust over half of the league&#8217;s top four defencemen this year first played at least half a season by the time that they&#8217;re 21. About 80 per cent have done it by the time they&#8217;re 23.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Niku turned 21 years old on October 10. Given that there are only 14 games left in Winnipeg\u2019s season, there is precisely zero chance for him to hit 41 games. If Dellow\u2019s look into history is any indication, Niku had better make the leap next season or the one after it \u2013 otherwise, he\u2019s a bad bet to last in the NHL.<\/p>\n<p>Nandakumar looked at the number of post-draft seasons it takes prospects to make the NHL (as defined by playing at least 40 games in a season.) Her work gives us this chart:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Niku was drafted in 2015 and is thus finishing his third season after being drafted. Per Nandakumar:\u00a0<em>\u201cThe median prospect who makes an NHL roster takes about four seasons to do so.\u201d\u00a0<\/em>Put another way: if Niku plays at least 40 games next season, he will be approximately average compared to his peers.<\/p>\n<p>Given that I\u2019m projecting Niku as Enstrom\u2019s long-term replacement and Enstrom is an unrestricted free agent this summer, it\u2019s good to know that Niku would be making decent time if he makes the NHL in 2018-2019.<\/p>\n<p>Dellow\u2019s piece allows us to take things one step further by considering a prospect\u2019s development route. Here is a similar chart to the one above which differentiates based on which league a prospect came from:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>As we\u2019ve already discussed, Niku was drafted from Finland\u2019s Mestis league and thus qualifies as European for this chart. On European defencemen, Dellow had this to say:<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cFourteen top four defencemen took the European path and entered the NHL at 21 or younger. It&#8217;s a fairly glittery list (at least by conventional hockey wisdom standards), including Hampus Lindholm, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Zdeno Chara, Rasmus Ristolainen, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom, Roman Josi, Anton Stralman, Victor Hedman and Alex Edler. European defencemen entering the league at 22 or later are a much less impressive group: John Klingberg and Mattias Ekholm are stars but it&#8217;s otherwise more of a group of journeymen top four types \u2014 the Johnny Oduyas of the world.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cAgain, there are structural impediments that prevent Europeans from getting a shot at the NHL earlier in their career. They have to decide to make the move over to North America and there are pressures from the European clubs to stay and develop there. There&#8217;s likely a bit of an unwillingness to come to North America while they think it&#8217;s probable that they&#8217;ll spend significant time in the AHL.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Niku is leading the AHL in points among defencemen and he\u2019s doing it at 21 years old. To me, that\u2019s a phenomenal result, but he\u2019s not yet in the NHL. Based on Dellow\u2019s research, if Niku were a surefire top four stud, he would have already made the leap.<\/p>\n<p>Still, given that very good defensemen like John Klingberg and Mattias Ekholm fall into the 22 or later group, my optimism has not waned.<\/p>\n<p>For context, Klingberg scored 28 points in 58 games as a 21 year old while playing for Frolunda HC of the Swedish league \u2013 good for a full-season NHL equivalency (NHLe) of 26 points.<\/p>\n<p>At 21, Ekholm played for Brynas IF Gavle \u2013 also of the SHL \u2013 where he scored 17 points in 41 games for an NHLe of 20 points.<\/p>\n<p>Niku\u2019s 44 points through 61 games in the AHL translates to a full-season NHLe of 28 points.<\/p>\n<p>To look at Niku&#8217;s offence in a different way, I pulled the top 200 offensive performances of under-22 AHL defencemen from 2005-2006 to now and sorted them by points per game. At 0.72 points per game this season, Niku ranks 12th in points per game for his age group.<\/p>\n<p>With Justin Schultz&#8217;s otherworldly 1.4 points per game playing with Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle during the 2012-2013 lockout excluded, here is Niku among his peers:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>There are some very impressive names on this list, a group of good young NHL players in the early stages of their careers, and a few players who failed to carve out NHL careers. In the end, 13 of the 19 players listed here (Gragnani is listed at age 21 and again at age 22) are full time NHL players.<\/p>\n<p>Here are what those 13 NHL careers look like in terms of points per game:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>This isn&#8217;t an in-depth statistical study; it is just a list of comparables. Still, roughly two-thirds of the AHL defencemen who produced points at Niku&#8217;s rate from 2005 to now made the NHL and have averaged 0.49 points per game in the world&#8217;s best league. It&#8217;s not conclusive but it is impressive.<\/p>\n<p>And while we know that offence isn&#8217;t everything, Niku compares well with Klingberg by NHLe and Sami Vatanen by points per game at the age of 21. If he enjoys that kind of NHL success, Niku will go down as the franchise\u2019s best late round pick since none other than\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Toby Enstrom (No. 239 overall, 2003.)<\/p>\n<p>Enstrom, if you\u2019re curious, also played in the SHL when he was 21. He scored 11 points in 47 games, giving him a full season NHLe of just 11 points. Enstrom doubled his SEL scoring the following year and then played his first NHL season at age 23, scoring 38 points in 82 games for our very own Atlanta Thrashers.<\/p>\n<p>Incidentally, appropriately, and a little bit hilariously, Arponen brought Enstrom\u2019s name up without prompt.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA very good comparison on Niku&#8217;s playing style is Tobias Enstrom,\u201d Arponen said. \u201cI think they play a very similar game \u2013 or at least how Enstrom played a few years ago. Very good skating, reads the game very well and has the hands to create plays. I think Niku&#8217;s upside is a top-4 D-man with power play time. Reaching 50 points like Enstr\u00f6m in his prime may be unlikely, but I don&#8217;t see a reason why couldn&#8217;t play in a role like that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>With so many signs pointing to an Enstrom-esque defender, it\u2019s getting harder and harder for me to project Niku as anything other than Enstrom\u2019s replacement.<\/p>\n<p>Another factor in favour of this is cost. With Byfuglien and Tyler Myers already making $13.1 million between them and Trouba\u2019s contract up this summer, Winnipeg would benefit tremendously from an affordable left-side option. Niku\u2019s ELC could provide just that.<\/p>\n<p>Put another way:<\/p>\n<p>Given that Winnipeg will face a slight cap crunch the moment Ehlers\u2019 $6 million contract hits the books next season, Niku\u2019s cost savings vs. whatever contract Enstrom signs could be the difference between standing pat at next year\u2019s trade deadline and going for another big fish like Paul Stastny. With Winnipeg poised to enter cap hell when Laine\u2019s 40+ goals turn into a cap hit in the neighbourhood of $10 million in summer 2019, Niku\u2019s emergence (and, ideally, Kristian Vesalainen\u2019s too) might be necessary just to keep Winnipeg competitive.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ll get to a more in-depth look at Winnipeg\u2019s salary cap situation in an upcoming article. For the moment, let us return to Niku. Is there anything that could hold him back from becoming a top four defenseman?<\/p>\n<p>For this, I\u2019ll close by turning to Pronman,\u00a0who has long been bullish on Winnipeg&#8217;s 2015 draft.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHis main obstacle to being an NHLer is off the puck,\u201d Pronman said. \u201cHe&#8217;s a little behind strength wise for where you would like a 21 year old to be. He&#8217;s not that imposing when checking men and while he can close gaps overall and has a good stick his defensive play could tighten up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Niku is currently listed at a non-behemoth six-foot, 194 pounds. While bigger than Enstrom is, Niku is a little on the small size for the NHL \u2013 but not by much.<\/p>\n<p>And while the notion that young players can bulk up in the gym is something of an ancient hockey truism, Niku\u2019s particular strengths may depend on his mobility. I\u2019m not sure how much weight I\u2019d want a player like him to add.<\/p>\n<p>Pronman certainly sees the value in Niku\u2019s agility.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSami&#8217;s biggest strength is his skating. He&#8217;s able to evade pressure so well and can lead a rush.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe&#8217;s got good puck skills, moves the puck well, and is a big reason why Manitoba has had such a good power play and overall team this season.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sure sounds like someone who can fill Enstrom\u2019s shoes to me.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, what does Niku think of his own transition to the North American game?<\/p>\n<p>Speaking for himself this time, in English, here&#8217;s Sami Niku:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI&#8217;m used to it,\u201d he said,\u00a0<em>in October<\/em>. No wonder things are going so well.<\/p>\n<p><small><em>(Top photo credit: Terrence Lee-USA TODAY)<\/em><\/small><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Click Here: <a href='https:\/\/www.jerstores.com\/new-zealand-rugby\/New-Zealand-Chiefs' title='new zealand chiefs rugby jersey'>new zealand chiefs rugby jersey<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TOGGLE NAVIGATION Jets have a perfect replacement for Toby Enstrom in Sami Niku By Murat Ates\u00a0Mar 12, 2018\u00a040\u00a0 The Winnipeg Jets needed to find a replacement for Toby Enstrom \u2013 and fast. With Winnipeg scheduled to play the next day in Philadelphia, Enstrom skipped last Friday\u2019s optional practice to nurse the lower body injury that &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/onhee.com\/?p=12372\" class=\"more-link\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Jets have a perfect replacement for Toby Enstrom in Sami Niku&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12372\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onhee.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}