Would front-runners Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren clash in their first in-person showdown? Would Kamala Harris get her mojo back after a summer slump? Would anything jolt the solidifying pecking order of Biden, Warren and Bernie Sanders in the top tier — and then everyone else struggling far below?
The fallout from Thursday night’s Democratic debate — the first time all the top contenders met face to face on the same stage — probably won’t be apparent right away. But the nearly three-hour marathon debate hosted by ABC and Univision produced plenty of grist to chew over.
Which is what six of POLITICO’s 2020 campaign reporters just did. We asked them to share their takeaways.
What surprised you?
Christopher Cadelago: Joe Biden opened the night as the clear aggressor, helping him get out ahead of anticipated criticism from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren over health care. Nobody landed a glove on him. But what surprised me most was how much Warren, who is nipping at Biden’s heels and polling a lot higher than Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar, skated and then kind of faded into the background.
Laura Barrón-López: Julián Castro went there on Biden’s age, questioning whether the front-runner could remember what he’d said moments before on health care. It was a risk and didn’t seem to land. But Castro as an aggressor, I think, works for him. Democrats can play nice but only for so long as they get closer to Iowa.
Natasha Korecki: Castro laying into Joe Biden repeatedly and at one point seeming to question Biden’s mental awareness was one of the more tense exchanges of the night. When Castro asked Biden “are you forgetting what you said two minutes ago?” it came across as over the top and a bit mean-spirited. While Castro’s gone on the attack plenty in debates, that comment was uncharacteristic of him.
Holly Otterbein: I was most surprised that Beto O’Rourke, who had been left for dead in the primary, pulled off a good performance tonight. His answer about gun confiscation was especially passionate. But will that make any difference in polling? I don’t know. It could perhaps help him fundraise, which he needs to do to stay in the race over the long haul — not at all a guarantee.
David Siders: I think the prospect of a forceful contrast between Biden and Warren was overhyped. But I was surprised that Warren was such a small factor in the debate. More moderate Democrats appear to have calculated that Sanders was the safer target on the left.
Alex Thompson: I was surprised that there were fewer clashes between the candidates than in the past two debates. The candidates had more room to focus on their own messages rather than on opponents’. But without the drama of conflict and a nearly three-hour run time, were as many people paying attention and will it change the dynamic of the race?
Who had the worst night? Who had the best?
Christopher Cadelago: Castro swung at Biden—and mostly missed. He accused the former vice president of forgetting what he said two minutes before. The problem? Castro was wrong, and Biden was right. It’s one thing to take on the front-runner over his advanced age and be right. But the fact-checks and postscripts will show Castro blew it. Warren didn’t mix it up with Biden, or anyone else. After appearing in two JV debates, she didn’t prove tonight that she could go toe-to-toe with Donald Trump. Biden survived the night, though he seemed to get weaker as it went on. Beto O’Rourke had some surprisingly strong moments.
Laura Barrón-López: Pete Buttigieg and [Amy] Klobuchar did not have any moment that made them stand out. And when you’re one of the second-tier candidates you need to find moments to shine. Beto O’Rourke had multiple strong, cutting answers, and set a sharp contrast, which he’s failed to do in the past — making this a great night for him. Joe Biden’s performance, though rambling, was the best he’s given out of the three debates. He was more energized.
Natasha Korecki: I wouldn’t say Biden had the best performance but it’s the highest energy debate he’s had to date. He was again the punching bag but handled the punches more deftly than he has in the past and even went on the offensive a bit with Sanders and Warren. O’Rourke had probably the most powerful response of the night with his “Hell, yes we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-57.” I don’t know that anyone really bombed, but Sanders looked a bit haggard and his voice was raspy to the point that it was distracting for the early part of the night, though he improved as the debate wore on.
Holly Otterbein: It was far from perfect, but tonight was Biden’s best debate this year. Even more critically, Biden kept Warren from walking offstage with the “Warren crushes Biden” storyline that some anticipated. Going into the debates, I said I was looking to see if Sanders took the fight to Biden after not memorably challenging him in the first debate. Sanders contrasted himself with him a tad more strongly on issues like trade and the Iraq War, but he still wasn’t all that aggressive.
David Siders: If debates are, in part, expectations games, Warren had the worst night and O’Rourke had the best. I doubt it will damage her, but Warren was getting her first shot at Biden and largely passed. I don’t know if the debate will help O’Rourke climb back into the top tier of contenders. But after two mediocre performances, he turned in an even, resonant debate. “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47” was one of the most well-received lines of the night.
Alex Thompson: Biden walked onstage the dominant front-runner and he almost certainly walked offstage the dominant front-runner. I think he had the best night. I don’t necessarily think anyone had a bad night but relative to the other candidates, Buttigieg had the worst. After his meteoric rise last spring, his campaign message and vision has been a bit ambiguous and he did little to further define it tonight.
Did you learn anything new?
Christopher Cadelago: Unfortunately, not particularly. Klobuchar and Buttigieg, the Midwestern candidates, still appear risk-verse and unwilling to confront anyone. Harris showed another side of herself, but came off better in the first debate when she took the fight to Biden like she says she would Trump. Warren is still refusing to acknowledge middle-class tax increases as part of Sanders’ “Medicare for All” plan she supports.
Laura Barrón-López: Nothing significant. But what struck me was the lack of direct attacks. There was no moment similar to the first debate when Harris targeted Biden on segregation. Biden lightly jabbed Warren over how she’d pay for Medicare for All.
Natasha Korecki: Biden has still somehow not come up with a good answer for deportations under the Obama administration, even though he’s had plenty of time to mull over his answer. It once again became a moment on the debate stage.
Holly Otterbein: Sanders tried on a different electability argument. He often points out on the campaign trail that he beats Trump in head-to-head polls. Tonight he noted that he won elections in Vermont despite facing long odds (and losing) in his early days as a politician.
David Siders: Everyone on stage knows electability is the issue dominating the minds of Democratic voters, but the candidates are still searching for ways to make a salient case. It’s easy in a campaign ad — put up a polling chart. It’s harder when answering questions about issues in a debate.
Alex Thompson: We learned that the health care debate isn’t going anywhere. We are going to keep hearing about Medicare for All, Medicare for America, Medicare for All Who Want It, and the various other proposals. There are clear dividing lines — raising taxes, true universal coverage, out of pocket costs, and eliminating private insurance — between the candidates and health care is consistently one of the most important issues with voters. There wasn’t much middle ground found tonight and so the debate will continue.
How did the moderators do?
Christopher Cadelago: No big issues with the moderators, other than the uneven distribution of difficult questions. The health care portion of the debate seems always to be a setup for the progressives to fight the moderates — a formula that other networks have used this cycle — but one that’s getting old.
Laura Barrón-López: The moderators did an effective job of asking direct questions that clearly challenged the candidates and at times made them uncomfortable. One criticism ABC received on Twitter from a number of reporters of color was the apparent decision to have the moderators of color ask all the questions about race and immigration.
Natasha Korecki: The moderators kept the debate on track. At times it felt like the first true debate of the Democratic primary. But it went too long and the answers grew more meandering and less focused.
Holly Otterbein: They were fine. I thought it was striking that the moderators often framed questions about health care in a fairly moderate way, whereas their questions about other issues such as criminal justice and immigration tilted pretty liberal.
David Siders: This was a well-moderated debate. It was free-flowing, with challenging questions. And the mics worked. Running for nearly three hours, however, is another question — one just about everyone in Houston was complaining about.
Alex Thompson: I thought they were good but not great. The final question about facing adversity was a bit lame and allowed some of the candidates to just revert to talking points they frequently use on the trail. It was a wasted chance to elicit some new information from the candidates.
Who had the most cringe-worthy moment?
Christopher Cadelago: Biden somehow weaving record players into his answer on K-12 education, and Klobuchar trying to break up a confrontation by quoting Abraham Lincon’s “House divided” line. Booker translating “no” into Spanish, got some chuckles.
Laura Barrón-López: Klobuchar had a lot of awkward moments from “House divided” to “Houston, we have a problem.”
Natasha Korecki: Harris comparing Trump to the “really small dude” behind the curtain in ‘The Wizard of Oz.”
Holly Otterbein: Everyone’s jokes were really, really bad.
David Siders: Klobuchar saying, “Houston, we have a problem.”
Alex Thompson: It wasn’t cringeworthy in the moment but it quickly became clear after checking the transcript that Castro’s implication that Biden was slipping mentally backfired. Castro had forgotten or misheard what Biden said and not the other way around.
How will this change the trajectory of the race?
Christopher Cadelago: Overall, Biden didn’t do anything that should cost him before the next debate in October. O’Rourke may raise enough money to keep his campaign running.
Laura Barrón-López: Debates rarely fundamentally change a race but Biden’s ability to fend off the attacks that were thrown his way may have other moderate candidates doubting their chances. Meanwhile, Warren, Sanders and Harris didn’t do anything risky and gave solid answers when pressed by moderators.
Natasha Korecki: It didn’t do what some had predicted, which is give Elizabeth Warren a clear opening to move past Biden as a front-runner. To anyone who thought this was Warren’s chance to leave Biden in the dust, it didn’t happen.
Holly Otterbein: Biden’s performance helps him stay the front-runner another day. And though he had a so-so performance, it’s good for Sanders that the debate didn’t turn into a one-on-one Biden vs. Warren showdown.
David Siders: Biden’s newly aggressive posture in this debate had the effect of bringing him down to earth, in a way — the front-runner, but an equal who could hit and be hit. But he is still dictating the terms of the contest, and if Warren or any other Democrat is going to topple him, they are going to have to find another way.
Alex Thompson: Fundraising and media attention will continue to shrink for candidates outside the top five to six. That will increase desperation and they will be facing the grim prospect of going into debt or dropping out.
Click Here: South Africa Rugby Shop