Behind 4 countries’ resistance to an EU climate neutral goal

At least three of the four are looking for dollops of cash to shift their position.

While 24 EU countries want the bloc to become climate neutral by 2050, four holdouts question a target they fear would cripple their economies. 

The split between the four — the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary and Poland — and the rest emerged at last week’s EU leaders’ summit, where the Central Europeans scuppered the 2050 goal.

Climate Action and Energy Commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete said on Tuesday that it is “great progress” to get most EU countries to agree to the 2050 target, adding: “We are not at all surprised that few of them think that more discussion is needed on the implications of that choice.”

There’s now a scramble in Brussels to figure out what it’s going to take to get the holdouts to change their minds — as they’ve made it clear they want help in cushioning their people and their economies from the impact of becoming climate neutral.

“We will prepare the answers to the demands of the Council and put on the table the conditions that will be needed in order that all the countries can do a fair transition with the support and solidarity of the rest of the countries,” said Arias Cañete.

The doubtful four

Poland is by far the biggest of the four, and has long been skeptical of the Commission’s growing ambitions when it comes to tackling climate change. It objected to EU leaders pushing forward with a 2050 goal without calculating what such a policy would cost.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is adamant that Warsaw wants cash to shift its position. “Poland is among those countries that must have very concrete compensation packages. We must know what funds we will get for modernization of our industry sectors,” he said after the summit.

The Poles complain that their country’s fast-growing economy is largely powered by coal, which generates about 80 percent of its electricity, and that adopting a goal of climate neutrality would hit it harder than countries with a cleaner energy mix.

“France’s energy mix relies 80 percent on atomic energy, which means that reaching the neutrality goal by 2050 is much less costly than for us,” Enterprise and Technology Minister Jadwiga Emilewicz told Polish television.

Hungary and the Czech Republic are also grumbling about costs.

Ahead of the summit, Hungary’s Innovation Minister László Palkovics came out in favor of the 2050 goal provided that nuclear power was part of the energy mix. But during the meeting, Budapest retreated to its traditional position of being Poland’s ally.

“We are unable to support the proposal for this until we know how much funding the European Union is able to make available for the modernization of industry,” the Hungarian government said in a statement.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that climate neutrality by 2050 requires expensive new technologies, and Hungary quite simply lacks the money, according to a diplomat in the room during the leaders’ summit.

His Czech counterpart Andrej Babiš also mentioned that such a target would be too hasty and too ambitious and would pose an excessive burden for European industry. He worried that the EU would be busy reducing emissions while the rest of the world invests in inefficient (but cheap) coal plants, according to the diplomat.

A reluctant skeptic

Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic make natural allies as all have big problems with the EU — the first two over charges that they’re violating the EU’s democratic standards, and Babiš over corruption allegations that brought hundreds of thousands on to the streets of Prague last weekend. Estonia — which cultivates the image of a tech-friendly Nordic country — is a bit of an odd-man-out in that grouping.

Prime Minister Jüri Ratas recognized that the EU needs to be ambitious, but argues any decision to commit the bloc to such a consequential goal should not be taken hastily, according to the diplomat. 

Estonia already has an 80 percent emissions reduction target for 2050 — but says the remaining 20 percent gap will be the hardest part. Estonia is carrying out an analysis, due to be finished by the end of the summer, on what it would take to become climate neutral, but until then it’s keeping tight-lipped.

Skeptical countries have thus far steered clear of making concrete financial demands, and haven’t spelled out how any transfer mechanism should work.

The European Parliament has an idea.

Last year MEPs signed off on a proposal that would allocate €4.8 billion out of the EU’s next budget to the Just Energy Transition Fund to support the EU’s coal-dependent regions. But discussions on the bloc’s next seven-year budget are stalled — so it’s hard to make cash promises.

Future targets

In addition to money, there are also worries over how the net-zero target would be divided among EU countries.

Under current legislation, EU countries have to cut emissions by 2030 depending on their per capita GDP — meaning that the cuts span the range from zero for Bulgaria to 40 percent for much wealthier Luxembourg and Sweden.

Together with emission reductions from the EU’s Emissions Trading System, these national targets are meant to achieve greenhouse gas emissions cuts of at least 40 percent compared with 1990 levels. 

The 2050 target is even more ambitious than that, but reaching that goal doesn’t necessarily mean that each EU country needs to become emissions-neutral. Some countries may pollute more, while others would have to absorb more than they emit to ensure an EU-wide net zero balance.

All that will have to be part of an offer made to the four holdouts.

“We are for climate protection and we’re waiting for a serious plan,” Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz told Polish television.

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